The Blog of a Math Nerd...named Donnie

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Allow me to introduce myself. I am a mathematician and programmer. Currently, I am working on a PhD in arithmetic geometry. I like to write about many things including math, sports, programming, education, and technology. If you would like to see my comments more frequently, you can follow me on my social profiles:

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Giving Up Sports Betting For Now

Posted on 12/19/2013

The time has come; I have to stop pursuing sports betting, but only temporarily. I did have success. I actually found a strategy that allowed me to win over 70% of the spread bets I made. However, due to the lack of freely available statistics, it took me too long to compile the information each week. If the information was programmatically easy to come by, I could continue this endeavor.

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Updated on 01/12/2016



Things Keep Changing

Posted on 11/12/2013

It seems that each week I find a betting strategy that might work going forward, and that week is a bad for that idea. This week is no different. I thought I found a way to narrow down which games to bet on, but I was wrong. I decided to do what I think was inevitable all along: mold trends and statistics.

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Updated on 01/12/2016



Good News and Bad News

Posted on 11/06/2013

As I computed numbers for this weeks' games, I knew it was going to be an interesting week. To start, there was only one game between teams that entered with winning records. In that game, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL left that game with a potential broken clavicle. There were also coaches collapsing and two 21-point comebacks. There is some good news that came out of the week and I can't wait to share.

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Updated on 01/12/2016



Week Two Trials Went Really Well

Posted on 10/29/2013

The second week of testing my strategies has made me a little worried. It went well - really well. Call me a pessimist, but the overwhelming success this week has make me question the validity of my strategies. The success may continue, however it is more likely that the strategies have an epic flaw that got lucky this week. This is why we test these things.

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Updated on 01/12/2016



First Week of Trials

Posted on 10/24/2013

The first week of handicapping NFL games went as well as can be expected, especially with how badly things went for some of the professional handicappers I follow. One handicapper lost all four of his Sunday day bets and decided to place two bets of $55,000 each on the Sunday night game. He won one and lost one. Here is how I did.

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Updated on 01/12/2016



Trying My Hand at Handicapping

Posted on 10/19/2013

It's no secret that I believe math and sports go together. After designing and analyzing my own baseball statistic, I've decided to try handicapping sports games. I'm starting with (American) football because it is hands-down the most popular sport in America and arguably the sport with the most betting action. Depending on the success of this endeavor, I may move on to basketball and/or baseball. Of course this takes a tremendous amount of time, and it's not something I'm jumping into head-first.

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Updated on 01/12/2016



Consistency Index Examples

Posted on 06/26/2013

The Consistency Indices are two baseball statistics I invented a few months ago. I've dedicated a lot of my time and computing time to these statistics. I have calculated both the On-Base Consistency Index (OBCI) and the Hit Consistency Index (HCI) for every batter's career debuting in 1915 or later with at least 2000 plate appearances. I have also calculated the top indices for each year, three-year span, and five-year span since 1915 (with plate appearance restrictions for each). All of this is through the 2012 season. I would like to share some of my thoughts and data.

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Updated on 01/12/2016



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