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Consistency Indicies Updated for 2013

Posted on 06/15/2014

Another MLB year came to a close and I now have the data I need to update the Consistency Indices. Last year was especially interesting because there is a great hitter in his prime and another young hitter that has the opportunity to be the best player in baseball, if he is not already. I would like to give some perspective on the consistency of the current players and how this 2013 ranks in history.

As you may recall, there are two Consistency Indices: one for hits and one for on-base. For the Hit Consistency Index (HCI), there is no surprise who is number one: Miguel Cabrera with an HCI of 3.928758. Cabrera had an excellent season, leading the MLB in batting average (.348) and on-base percentage (.442), despite battling a couple different injuries toward the end. The number two spot belongs to Michael Cuddyer with an HCI of 3.92468. Cuddyer was second in the league in batting average (.331). These aren't surprising because they are number one and two in batting average. The HCI tends to following batting average for single seasons. Here are the top ten HCI's for 2013:

NameOn Base CIHit CI
Miguel Cabrera13.2117151062618493.9287575767906127
Michael Cuddyer10.498113843757443.924683886175119
Joe Mauer6.1142973591342083.7284120533153278
Howie Kendrick5.55296858487184153.6210898798394533
Allen Craig4.3940199958424323.4784185018451392
Mike Trout17.5531461085575453.406338180121031
Austin Jackson5.2508094230652763.205842481941779
Jose Reyes4.93375574896949853.0998241587528943
Jhonny Peralta5.4065465096067042.938341567152542
Adam Jones5.0810037986704682.929320978879294

The On-Base Consistency Index (OBCI) has a lot of the same players at the top. Number one is Mike Trout with an OBCI of 17.5531. You'll notice in the top ten list for OBCI, the numbers decline much faster than in the HCI list. This is caused by teams "pitching around" the top hitters in the game. That is, Mike Trout and David Wright are more likely to walk in a high-leverage at-bat because teams would rather pitch to someone else. Here is the top ten:

NameOn Base CIHit CI
Mike Trout17.5531461085575453.406338180121031
Miguel Cabrera13.2117151062618493.9287575767906127
David Wright11.499117092596462.0440454546442774
Michael Cuddyer10.498113843757443.924683886175119
Joey Votto9.7863844618481451.9374288758148415
David Ortiz8.310086262372981.8782460162637997
Shin-Soo Choo8.3048669908578031.234302436122293
Prince Fielder7.9121645918485972.1282685942999158
Matt Holliday6.8783611784940232.455811881037437
Freddie Freeman6.8091645965963462.7969661521294946

Historically, 2013 was a mediocre year for consistency. Mike Trout was the only player to crack the top 50 for either Index and Joey Votto was the only person to enter the top 50 three-year OBCI (2011-2013). No player had a top 50 five-year Consistency Index that included 2013. This goes with the idea that we are in an era dominated by pitching with a few elite hitters.

I would like to make a small prediction for the 2014 season. Let me preface this prediction by stating that I am a HUGE Mike Trout fan. I admire his combination of hitting, speed, and defense. After looking at the numbers, my guess is that he will have a down year. Now, a down year for Trout is still an above average year, but I don't think he will be in the top 3 (maybe even 5) for either Index in 2014. I would like to be wrong because I really like the guy, but the trend is that in a three year span a player generally has a down year. Let's hope everyone else does, too.

Tags: Sports, Stats, Consistency Index
Updated on 01/12/2016

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