The Blog of a Math Nerd...named Donnie


Things Keep Changing

Posted on 11/12/2013

It seems that each week I find a betting strategy that might work going forward, and that week is a bad for that idea. This week is no different. I thought I found a way to narrow down which games to bet on, but I was wrong. I decided to do what I think was inevitable all along: mold trends and statistics.

I will ignore the tables I have been giving in the past and jump straight the the ideas I have. For spread betting, I noticed that my strategies worked very well when the home team was the underdog. I contribute this to the fact that bad teams play better at home, and teams that travel long distances (west coast team traveling to the east) tends to perform below their average. I don't always bet on the home team when they are an underdog, but it seems that my strategy balances well with Vegas' (and the public's) perception of these teams.

Over the past four weeks, when the home team is not favored (so the game is either a pick 'em or the home team is the strict underdog) one of my strategies has won 16 out of 22 bets (72.72%), including 4 out of 5 this week. I will continue to monitor this idea this week.

The over/under bets have proven to be very puzzling. I thought that I had a strong strategy, but it has recently been deemed insufficient for betting purposes. I mentioned this strategy last week, but the past two weeks have gone very badly. Overall, it has won 19 out of 37 bets (51.35%). It still has a chance to turn things around. In an effort to mold trends and statistics together, I will be keeping a close eye on a teams over/under streaks. That is, if a team has had a streak of at least 2 games where they were under the total, I will take that into consideration instead of blindly following the numbers. I will also do the same for teams that have had a streak of 3 games or more going over the total. Obviously there are certain things that don't fit this mold (a team that has gone over the total 3 weeks in a row playing a team that has gone under the total 3 weeks in a row), but I anticipate that these trends will allow me to be more successful with these bets.

Things are getting very complicated and I am keeping things closed for many reasons. However, I will be glad to share all of the things I have been tracking over the past several weeks at the end of the season. Hopefully I will have some successful and interesting results to share.

Tags: Sports, Betting
Updated on 01/12/2016


Allow me to introduce myself. I am a mathematician and programmer. Currently, I am working on a PhD in arithmetic geometry. I like to write about many things including math, sports, programming, education, and technology. If you would like to see my comments more frequently, you can follow me on my social profiles:


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