The Blog of a Math Nerd...named Donnie


Week Two Trials Went Really Well

Posted on 10/29/2013

The second week of testing my strategies has made me a little worried. It went well - really well. Call me a pessimist, but the overwhelming success this week has make me question the validity of my strategies. The success may continue, however it is more likely that the strategies have an epic flaw that got lucky this week. This is why we test these things.

I won't waste any time; here are the winning percentages for each strategy:

Spread Strategies
Strategy 19/12
Strategy 24/13
Strategy 35/13
Strategy 44/12
O/U Strategies
Strategy 18/12
Strategy 25/12
Strategy 39/13
Strategy 46/13
Strategy 56/10
As you can see, Strategy 1, which is the strategy of interest, did very well in predicting the against-the-spread and over/under outcomes this week. A winning percentage of 70.8% in a week looks good now, but history shows such percentages are unsustainable. Combining this with the first weeks' results, Strategy 1 has won 34 out of 53 bets for a winning percentage of 64.15% - extremely good! Note that if a strategy gives the same exact number as Vegas, that line is not bet at all. That is the reason for the varying bets in each strategy.

I will continue to point out the flaw in the system; it requires one to bet on essentially every game. This is not ideal and I had an idea to fix this last week. However, that idea has proven extremely ineffective this week. Theoretically, a high winning percentage is great, but I am still uncomfortable with betting every game. I will continue to look for strategies to eliminate games and maintain high winning percentages. For this reason, I will track the "bad" strategies in hopes that they will provide valuable insight to which games to bet and/or which to leave out.

In closing I would like to mention that I am going to start experimenting with NBA handicapping. I have started transporting the strategies, but have had little success with the spread bets. It seems that there is too much variance for my strategy to work with the NBA. Therefore, I am restricting my experiments with the NBA to over/under bets only. Specializing will hopefully allow me to be more successful.

Tags: Sports, Betting
Updated on 01/12/2016


Allow me to introduce myself. I am a mathematician and programmer. Currently, I am working on a PhD in arithmetic geometry. I like to write about many things including math, sports, programming, education, and technology. If you would like to see my comments more frequently, you can follow me on my social profiles:


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